— Strategic question
“How should we position our European energy portfolio given the accelerating transition to renewables and increasing geopolitical volatility by 2035?”
Board is deciding on €4B capital allocation across LNG infrastructure, offshore wind, and grid storage over the next 18 months.
— Scenarios
TECHNOLOGY LEAP
Open matrixPOLICY FRAGMENTATION
Systemic Disruption
StableA breakthrough in solid-state battery technology or green hydrogen cost collapse resets the economics of the entire system, invalidating most existing transition roadmaps.
Green Velocity
StrengtheningRenewables scale faster than anyone forecast. Policy tailwinds, falling costs, and industrial electrification drive a near-complete grid transformation ahead of schedule.
Fossil Persistence
WeakeningPolitical resistance, energy security fears, and underestimated transition costs slow the shift. Fossil infrastructure gets extended. New LNG capacity is built across Southern Europe.
Fragmented Transition
MixedThe transition proceeds but fractures along national lines. Northern Europe races ahead. Southern and Eastern Europe lag behind. Internal EU energy market coherence breaks down.
POLICY ALIGNMENT
INCREMENTAL CHANGE
— Project pulse
Signals this month
6
3AI · 3 manual
Next review
15 Apr
-14 days
Strong disagreement on Fragmented Transition — half the team sees Nordic acceleration as dominant signal, half sees CEE divergence as structural. Left unresolved. Will revisit after Hungarian election.
— Recent signals
View allIEA revises European renewable capacity forecast upward by 23%
Germany reverses nuclear phase-out for two plants
Solar module prices fall 18% in Q1 2026
Hungarian grid operator halts cross-border capacity allocation