— Scenario
Fossil Persistence
61%
AI confidence
Narrative
It is 2035. The transition happened — but half as fast as projected. Three consecutive cold winters between 2027 and 2030 triggered political backlash against premature coal closures. Germany quietly extended two gas plants until 2038. Poland successfully lobbied for a revised EU carbon timeline. LNG terminals built in Greece, Spain, and Italy in 2028 are now running at full capacity. Renewables still grew — but they grew alongside gas, not instead of it.
This scenario is losing momentum
German nuclear reversal signals broader political appetite for fossil continuity is weakening, not strengthening. Three new offshore wind auctions oversubscribed in January. LNG spot prices in Europe hit 4-year lows, reducing the economic case for new terminals.
Signposts that moved
Recent signals
Key trend development
How trends are developing in this scenario
Implications
Winners
- 01LNG terminal operators — politically protected as energy security infrastructure
- 02Southern EU governments who secured infrastructure exemptions from Brussels
- 03Gas utilities that extended asset lifetimes and locked in long-term supply contracts
- 04Energy security consultancies advising on bridge fuel transition strategies
Losers
- 01Renewables developers who concentrated in Southern/Eastern Europe
- 02Climate-focused investment funds facing stranded positioning
- 03EU policy credibility on 2030/2035 transition targets
- 04Industrial energy users locked into high-cost long-term gas contracts if prices spike
Strategic opportunities
- 01Gas-to-hydrogen conversion assets — positioning for eventual transition
- 02Energy security advisory services across Southern EU government clients
- 03LNG terminal operator partnerships for bridge fuel positioning
- 04Short-term carbon price arbitrage while trajectory remains low
Possible trigger events
- 01LNG spot price movements — 4-year lows reduce new terminal economics
- 02Coal plant lifetime extension announcements in Germany and Poland
- 03EU carbon timeline revision proposals from Southern EU members
- 04Italian and Greek infrastructure exemption request outcomes
How did we end up here?
Hypothetical path to this scenario
2026
Germany extends two nuclear plants. LNG spot prices hit 4-year lows but terminal construction continues for energy security reasons. Political framing shifts from 'transition speed' to 'transition safety.'
2028
Three cold winters trigger public backlash against premature coal closures. Southern EU countries successfully lobby for gas infrastructure exemptions from Brussels.
2030
Poland renegotiates its EU carbon timeline. LNG terminals in Greece, Spain, and Italy run at full capacity. Carbon price trajectory stalls as political will weakens.
2032
Renewables still grow — but they grow alongside gas, not instead of it. Utility business models stabilise around dual-fuel portfolios. The 'bridge fuel' framing becomes permanent.
2035
Europe reaches 55% renewables — meaningful progress, but half the pace projected a decade ago. Gas utilities that extended asset lifetimes are profitable. The transition continues, slowly.