— Strategic question
“What urban mobility models will dominate European cities by 2040, and how does this reshape our infrastructure investment thesis?”
Investment committee reviewing €1.2B committed to transit hubs, charging infrastructure, and urban data networks over the next 24 months.
— Scenarios
AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
Open matrixFRAGMENTED DEMAND
Autonomous Sprawl
MixedLevel 4 autonomous vehicles arrive but enable urban sprawl rather than density. People live further from work when the commute is productive. Outer-ring real estate booms.
Platform Cities
StrengtheningIntegrated MaaS platforms dominate urban transport. A few operators run transit-as-a-service for entire cities. Car ownership collapses below 10% in urban cores.
Car-Centric Resilience
WeakeningPrivate car ownership persists despite electrification and urban policy pressure. EVs replace ICE vehicles but the ownership model holds. Suburban development accelerates.
Zero-Ownership Era
StableCar ownership collapses across all European city sizes, but full autonomy doesn't arrive. Human-driven shared mobility handles the bulk of urban trips.
UNIFIED PLATFORMS
HUMAN-DRIVEN
— Project pulse
Signals this month
5
3AI · 2 manual
Next review
30 Mar
-30 days
Significant debate on whether AV regulatory acceleration changes the Zero-Ownership vs Autonomous Sprawl split. Team split 60/40. Agreed to add AV regulatory timeline as a key signpost across both scenarios.
— Recent signals
View allParis, Amsterdam, Barcelona congestion pricing cuts private car entries by 34%
EU Automated Vehicles Act passes first reading — Level 4 on urban corridors by 2030
Uber posts first profitable European quarter — rides up 28% year-on-year
European car ownership drops 4.2% in 2025 — steepest fall in 25 years