— Scenarios
— Strategic question
“What urban mobility models will dominate European cities by 2040, and how does this reshape our infrastructure investment thesis?”
AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
FRAGMENTED DEMAND
Level 4 autonomous vehicles arrive but enable urban sprawl rather than density. People live further from work when the commute is productive. Outer-ring real estate booms.
Integrated MaaS platforms dominate urban transport. A few operators run transit-as-a-service for entire cities. Car ownership collapses below 10% in urban cores.
Private car ownership persists despite electrification and urban policy pressure. EVs replace ICE vehicles but the ownership model holds. Suburban development accelerates.
Car ownership collapses across all European city sizes, but full autonomy doesn't arrive. Human-driven shared mobility handles the bulk of urban trips.
UNIFIED PLATFORMS
HUMAN-DRIVEN
Click a scenario to explore signposts and trace signals
Uncertainties on a continuum
Autonomous vehicle readiness
Consumer car ownership preference
Platform consolidation
Urban density trajectory
Regulatory stance on mobility platforms